BY: Ch. Muhammad Natiq Ubaid
The Defence Ministry of Pakistan has stated in a report sent to the Supreme Court (regarding the national security situation and provision of troops for providing security to electoral activities) that the terrorist threat in Pakistan is likely to increase in the immediate future but the situation will improve by winter of this year.
The report said that relatively unchecked freedom of movement is available to the TTP, JUA, BLA, BNA, BLF, ISKP. The TTP and ISKP are settled in border districts at the Pakistan-Afghanistan International Border.
The Afghan Taliban is not in a position to conduct operations against the TTP. In 2021-2022, Pakistan opted for reconciliation with the TTP to minimise terrorism. Still, it ended as a failed strategy leading to increased cases of terrorism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and elsewhere in Punjab.
The TTP is re-grouping in Afghanistan posing a greater threat to us. Afghanistan continues to offer ungoverned spaces to terrorist groups. Iran also offers a fairly enabling environment to terrorists operating in Balochistan including hosting, financing and facilitating RAW and other Hostile Intelligence Agencies (HIAs) against Pakistan.
The report further stated that due to Pakistan’s efforts this year, the Interim Afghan Government is now undertaking relocation of the TTP terrorists away from areas they used to live in, at the Pakistan-Afghanistan International Border to the areas far away.
This process is likely to start by winter, in October 2023 and will accrue positive dividends to Pakistan with respect to Counterterrorism.
The Defence Ministry further stated that “the RAW [Research and Analysis Wing, India’s external intelligence agency] identified fault lines to hurt the federation of Pakistan, especially by fanning ethnic issues, water disputes, the alleged resource capture and monopoly of Punjab and as terrorists say in Balochistan, the colonisation by Punjab.
Therefore, holding general elections of the Punjab Assembly would fuel the situation.”
In our personal non-official assessment most of the points given are true in nature except the last, which is based on non-conclusive evidence and no proper intelligence. The interpretation is unfounded and unexplainably leaning towards one possibility out of many. Without the presence of any credible intelligence, the conclusion drawn is unlikely, immature and unreliable.
Additionally, it is our understanding and its obvious that all stakeholders can agree that the constitutionally-guaranteed democratic right of almost 150 million Pakistanis outweighs any perceived and/or inflated risk of the above-mentioned security threats and that the correct policy of the government and its strategy should be to proactively and preemptively confront the threat and minimise/eradicate it rather than allowing it to dictate Pakistani internal affairs, and directly hurt our national interests of which the most supreme is the right of the people to elect their own representative governments and be a citizen of an Islamic, democratic republic.
We are well aware that the capabilities of the Pakistan Armed Forces constitute, as per the ISPR, ‘full-spectrum’ credible deterrence.
Being a defence-focused think tank, we also are cognisant of the exact state of our military, its force structure and capabilities (as well as those of the enemy’s), and after weighing the risks against the national interests, it is our humble opinion that the chance of this specific scenario detailed by the MOD, where the Indian intelligence community in the event that elections in Punjab are held, are able to inflame various ethnic fault lines to such a massive extent (and in the assumed absence of our state’s retaliatory measures) that street-level and general civil law and order breaks down across provincial lines, after which India utilises this “opportunity” to stop all of its national processes and mobilise to launch a ground invasion of Pakistan under the nuclear overhang, to be at best the most minimal as a threat/risk assessment is allowed to be before venturing into the realm of excuses and fake dreams. Even that classification in itself is a courtesy.
Hence, all necessary measures should be taken by the Federal Government to ensure the safety and security of Pakistani citizens.
The passive acquiescence of the State of Pakistan to our enemies, against the express wishes and will of the people, would constitute a sovereign capitulation of the most significant order and a gross surrender of duty to the country and their oath of office by all involved in approving this potential decision.
Not to mention that compliance with enemy demands, in this case directly leading to the sacrificing of the precious rights and freedoms of own citizens is something that is not and can never be, the legacy and tradition of the Pakistan Armed Forces.
It is not possible.
And it is impossible for the Pakistani nation to accept.
We shall stand on principle, or not stand at all.
