Mr. Khalid Taimur Akram, Executive Director, Pakistan Research Center for a Community with Shared Future (PRCCSF), Islamabad:
In a bold move towards a sustainable future, China has outlined its ambitious decarbonization goals for 2025, with a strong emphasis on green finance as a central strategy. This initiative is in line with the major decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council regarding carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. China’s efforts in promoting green finance are pivotal to its agenda for green and low-carbon development, focusing on environmental improvement, climate change mitigation, and the conservation and efficient use of resources.
Over the past decade, China has been instrumental in fostering high standards and openness within the green finance framework, improving incentive and constraint mechanisms. The country has also been a strong advocate for international cooperation on green finance, recognizing the global nature of environmental challenges.
A significant aspect of China’s decarbonization strategy involves stringent regulations and policies aimed at reducing fuel consumption from new cars and trucks. The country is also witnessing a rapid growth in its electric vehicle (EV) market, positioning itself as a global leader in clean transportation. China aims to align with its 2060 net-zero pledge by adopting a “high ambition” approach with practicable measures by 2035. However, sustained policy development will be necessary post-2035 to achieve a 70%–80% reduction in emissions by 2050 and ultimately reach near-zero emissions by 2060.
Current technological forecasts suggest that internal combustion engine efficiency improvements are nearing cost-effective limits. However, electric cars in China have already achieved cost parity with conventional fuel vehicles in terms of total ownership cost. This shift is expected to accelerate, with the tipping point for various models of electric commercial vehicles potentially arriving as early as 2025. To support this transition, China will establish GHG emission standards with a robust compliance program for cars and trucks. By 2035, new cars are expected to be zero-emission fleet-wide, and new heavy-duty vehicles are anticipated to cut carbon intensity or fuel consumption by two-thirds.
China’s decarbonization goals also include a compatible zero-emission vehicle roadmap that requires 100% zero-emission for new passenger car sales and a 40%–75% electric share of new medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicle (MHCV) sales by 2035, reaching 100% zero-emission for new MHCV sales fleet-wide by 2040.
The focus on rapid decarbonization encompasses pathways that promote job growth, economic opportunity, and a just transition across the energy and industrial value chains. According to China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP), peaking greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 is a crucial milestone to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The 14th FYP emphasizes controlling total energy consumption, curbing high-emissions, energy-intensive projects, promoting hydropower and renewable energy, advancing new energy and intelligent vehicles, and establishing national industrial innovation centers in strategic fields, including new energy.
Significant progress has been made in China’s low-carbon energy sector, with renewable energy project capacity in development plans increasing fourfold. By 2025, a final investment decision on renewable energy development projects is expected, aiming for 20 GW capacity and 50 GW by 2030.
China’s commitment to carbon neutrality is expected to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy, in alignment with global environmental commitments made at CBD COP15 and COP26. The central pathway to achieving net zero involves generating most electricity from non-fossil-fuel sources and expanding clean power wherever possible.
China’s renewable energy infrastructure improvements are key to connecting power production facilities with the power supply network. As capacity and efficiency increase, more policies and regulations aimed at reducing carbon emissions in specific economic areas are anticipated, along with incentives to encourage private capital participation in the energy transition.
In conclusion, China’s decarbonization goals for 2025 involve advancing green finance, enforcing stringent emission regulations, making significant investments in renewable energy, and committing to a sustainable future. Through these efforts, international best practices, and continuous policy evolution, China aims to achieve its ambitious carbon neutrality targets, setting an example for global climate action.
